lunes, 23 de abril de 2012

Rotación de sectores


Empieza la rotación de sectores hacia sectores más defensivos. En el gráfico se ve como la relación entre las tecnológicas y el S&P 500 ha venido siendo negativo en los últimos días frente a una mayor fuerza relativa de los sectores defensivos como consumo no cíclico y las farmaceúticas. 

Por otro lado la evolución de sorpresas positivas sigue siento fuerte en torno a un 72 %. No obstante hay que tener mucho cuidado con estos gráficos ya que es más importante la variación de resultados frente al año anterior que las sorpresas positivas. Una empresa puede tener una evolución negativa de beneficios frente al año anterior de un 10 % y sin embargo si los analistas decían que iba a caer un 15 %, esto supone una sorpresa positiva porque pierde menos de lo previsto. Sin embargo lo que importa es la variación frente a los resultados del año anterior. Estos datos son realmente más difíciles de encontrar, porque normalmente nos suelen ofrecer resultados frente a previsiones.   

Este es el artículo leído en Capitalogix.

Sector Rotation Shows Defensive Posture - Even Though Earnings Are Strong

One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface.
This chart shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive.

120422 Sector Rotation



John Murphy explains:

The four sector lines are plotted "relative" to the S&P 500 which is the flat black line. In other words, the four sector lines are relative strength ratios that measure their performance "relative" to the S&P 500.
The blue line shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) leading the market higher since the beginning of the year. Technology leadership is a good thing for the market. The XLK:SPX ratio has started to drop during April, however, which shows short-term loss of that leadership. In fact, technology was this week's weakest sector.
The other three lines show the relative performance of the three defensive sectors which are consumer staples (pink line), healthcare (green line), and utilities (red line).
Those three sectors underperformed the S&P 500 since December as the market rallied. Notice, however, that those three relative strength ratios have turned up over the last month. In fact, utilities, healthcare, and staples were this week's three strongest sectors.
That's normally a sign that investors are turning more defensive and are protecting themselves from a possible market correction.

Meanwhile, Q1 Earnings Season got off to a good start as companies continue to surprise with strong revenue and earnings.

120423 Q1 Earnings Off to a Good Start
via Bespoke.