miércoles, 11 de enero de 2012

Estamos o no en recesión

Algunas notas sobre este artículo interesante. Por un lado el instituto ECRI hablando que estamos en recesión, por otro lado los indicadores adelantados yendo para arriba... voces disonantes y además los datos más recientes advirtiendo de mejoras en empleo y en condiciones de los negocios... Un momento realmente incierto donde las bolsas pueden tener cierto comportamiento errático. No olvidemos que estamos en año presidencial y eso suelo mover los mercados... Por lo demás el desapalancamiento va a seguir estando allí y eso hará dar una vuelta a la actividad

Let’s start with the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which bills itself as “the world's leading authority on business cycles.” The firm continues tostand by its late-September recession forecast,
In any case, ECRI’s recession call is at odds with the consensus forecast these days. Leading the charge of the optimists is the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which continues to signal expansion. “November’s increase in the LEI for the U.S. was widespread among the leading indicators and continues to suggest that the risk of an economic downturn in the near term has receded,”
We are going to enter another recession next year, when we haven't really fully recovered from the previous one. We think we are in what Niall Ferguson, a Harvard historian, recently termed a slight depression. This isn't a normal business cycle. So long as there is downward pressure on prices, bond yields will either continue to go down or bottom out around the real rate, assuming that the inflation rate stops at zero. We aren't there yet, obviously, but are headed in that direction.

But if there's a recession brewing surely it'll start showing up relatively soon in new claims. In other words, initial claims are on my short list as the statistical equivalent of the canary in the cyclical coalmine. In particular, there's likely to be a general change in direction in new claims if economic conditions take a turn for the worse in the weeks and months ahead.

In that case I also expect to see the stock market's annual return dip into negative territory if the forces of recession grow stronger. For the moment, the S&P 500 remains moderately higher vs. this time last year. Although the stock market has been known to see recessions that never materialize, new contractions are almost always accompanied by persistent and deep year-over-year declines in the S&P.