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lunes, 21 de febrero de 2011
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Artículo sobre el Mercado de la Madera
He encontrado este artículo correspondiente a Louis Basanese que habla sobre el comportamiento histórico de las acciones del sector de la Madera. Es de hace casi un año, pero todavía entiendo tiene vigencia. Los principales puntos que indica son los siguientes:
· El Mercado de la Madera se ha comportado major que el Mercado en general desde 2010. Lo mismo puede decirse desde 1987 con un incremento de un 15 % frente al general del Mercado del 11 %.
· La causa fundamental está en la biología, es decir el propio crecimiento de las plantas que aporta entre el 65 % y el 75 % del rendimiento global.
· Incluso los desastres naturales no evitan el rendimiento de sus acciones ya que siempre se puede vender la Madera dañada.
· Dos son los motivos para invertir en Madera:
o Cobertura contra la inflación, especialmente en época altamente inflacionista ya que de 1973 a 1981 creció en torno a un 22 % anual.
o Diversificación. Baja correlación con el resto de activos. De esta forma en una cartera diversificada podríamos aumentar su rentabilidad con el mismo riesgo o bien reducir el riesgo para obtener la misma rentabilidad.
· Además la historia demuestra que en cuatro de los cinco mayores colapsos financieros ha obtenido rentabilidades positivas, incluido en este ultimo ya que mientras el S&P caía un 38 %, las acciones de Madera subían un 5 %.
· La inversion en Madera es como un cupón cero, no distribuye intereses a lo largo de la vida de ésta solo cuando éste es talado y vendido. Por eso es una inversion de paciencia. En el artículo se citan varias empresas madederas. El periodo de maduración viene a ser de 30 a 65 años, depende de la zona por lo que realmente hace falta mucha paciencia.
by Louis Basenese, Small Cap and Special Situations Expert Thursday, March 12, 2010: Issue #1214
If you’re not following the money into timberland, you should. Here’s why…
Timberland has outperformed the S&P 500 since 1910.
In recent history, timber has outperformed the market significantly. Since 1987, the NCREIF Timberland Index climbed by an average of 15% per year, compared to roughly 11% for the S&P 500.
Such strong outperformance boils down to one factor – biology.
Biology accounts for 65% to 75% of timberland’s performance. Nothing can stop it from adding to the value of timberland investments. Come rain or shine, trees grow. And so does their value. By an average of 2% to 8% per year, in fact.
Not even natural disasters can undermine timberland’s value, because companies can still sell damaged timber. For example, after Mount St. Helens erupted, nearly 80% of the scorched timber was still suitable for sale.
Bottom line: Timberland is one investment virtually guaranteed to increase in value. And who doesn’t want that?
Two More Compelling Reasons to Own Timberland
The benefits of investing in timberland extend beyond pure profitability…
~ Inflation: Timber is a natural hedge here. Real prices for timberland have risen steadily for more than 100 years.
Even more attractive: During the last bout of runaway inflation (1973-1981), timberland was one of the top-performing hedges, increasing by an average of 22% per year.
~ Portfolio Diversification: This is the most compelling reason to become a tree-hugger. Timberland sports a very low correlation with most asset classes – less than 0.1. Accordingly, adding timber to a well-diversified portfolio enhances the return potential, while reducing risk.
And with the market fighting significant headwinds – high unemployment, a comatose real estate market, weak consumer spending, runaway deficit spending, a potential credit-induced bubble in China, and a looming debt crisis in Europe (to name a few) – timberland could be the only asset to rise above it all.
That’s not mere conjecture. History proves it…
Timberland ranks as the only asset class to deliver positive performance in four out of the five major market collapses – including 2008.
While the S&P 500 tanked 38%, timberland rose by 9.5%, based on the NCREIF Timberland Index.
With so many positive attributes, you’d think investors would be piling into timberland. But they aren’t.
The Drawbacks of U.S. Timberland Investments
Access to high-quality, pure timberland investments is scarce.
Roughly 71% of timberland is privately owned. And most active investments are facilitated through TIMOs (Timberland Investment Management Organizations), which carry a stiff $5 million entry fee.
On the publicly traded side, REITs and timberland companies like Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL), Potlatch (NYSE: PCH), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) and Rayonier (NYSE: RYN) are imperfect proxies – despite conventional wisdom that says otherwise.
Most use significant amounts of leverage. This exposes you to credit and interest rate risk, which can cut into returns. The classic example of the performance disconnect is Weyerhaeuser. While timber prices climbed by an average of 10% over the last 10 years, its stock dropped by an average of 0.1% each year.
Other assets and business operations are often lumped into the mix, further diluting your exposure to timberland. Take Rayonier, for example. It runs a high-performance fiber division, which currently accounts for 50% of its operating income.
Of course, another contributing factor to the lack of timberland’s popularity is that most investors are impatient.
Timberland is akin to a zero-coupon bond. You have to wait for the investment to “mature” before you get paid. And since commercially viable trees grow at different rates in different places, maturity can take anywhere from 30 years domestically to 65 years in Canada and Northern Europe.
That’s an eternity for most investors, given that studies show most only hold investments for an average of six to seven months.
I don’t possess the Biblical patience of Job to wait for timberland to mature either. But that’s where the best news comes in…
The Argentina Solution
At last year’s Investment U Conference (this year’s event takes place in San Diego next week – stay tuned for our live daily reports), I was fortunate to speak with Steve Rosberg, managing partner of Ushay (www.ushay.com). Ushay is an investment company that creates and manages timberland, vineyard and construction projects in Argentina and Uruguay.
As Steve explained, Argentina sports several benefits…
Faster Growth Rate: The Corrientes province boasts the fastest growth rates in the world. Pine and eucalyptus timberland mature in as little as 15 years. (That’s 50% faster than in the United States.)
Cheaper: In some cases, the purchase price of timberland in Argentina can be one-hundredth the typical cost of a TIMO investment. That would allow you to “ladder” timberland investments over time, thereby producing steady, reliable returns on a more frequent basis – instead of waiting for a massive lump sum payout once every 30 to 65 years.
Currency Diversification: By investing directly in timberland overseas, you also get the added benefit of currency diversification and the potential for tax-free growth, depending on the country and your individual tax situation. In Argentina, for instance, the appraised growth of timber is exempt from income taxes. And you also get special land and asset tax exemptions.
There are other international timberland opportunities that can reduce the traditional maturity period. Two worth considering are New Zealand and Chile, as both countries boast some of the fastest timberland growth rates.
In the end, finding such opportunities might require an extra dose of due diligence. But I assure you that given timberland’s track record of proven, steady performance – even in down markets – it will be time well spent.
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Economistas con más influencia: Shiller gana puestos
The contemporary Keynes
Which economist is doing most to shape post-crisis thinking?
Feb 8th 2011
DISMAL economies are often dismal for economists. Respected figures find
themselves defending discredited theories or justifying why they failed to
see trouble coming. But calamity can also clear paths for new ideas. The
Depression was the backdrop for the work of John Maynard Keynes. The
stagflationary 1970s vindicated Milton Friedman: a generation of
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